McDonald’s isn’t just selling fewer burgers—it’s losing its core customers. On November 5, 2025, Christopher Kempczinski, CEO of McDonald’s Corporation, revealed during the company’s earnings call that visits from low-income Americans dropped by nearly double digits in the third quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, traffic from higher-income customers rose just as sharply. The twist? Global sales still climbed 8% to $36 billion, and same-store sales edged past forecasts at 3.6%. But behind those numbers is a quiet crisis: the chain’s original backbone—families relying on $1 cheeseburgers and $2 Happy Meals—is walking away.
The Price of a Happy Meal
McDonald’s once thrived because it was the only affordable option for working families. The Dollar Menu, launched in the early 2000s, was a lifeline. Today, even the “Dollar Menu & More” feels like a relic. According to company data, the average menu item price has jumped 40% since 2019. A Happy Meal now costs more than $7 in many markets. For a parent juggling rent hikes, childcare costs, and groceries that rose 5% last year, that’s not a treat—it’s a luxury. “There’s some significant inflation there that the low-income consumer is having to absorb,” Kempczinski admitted. But his tone wasn’t apologetic. It was observational. As if to say: this isn’t our fault. It’s the economy’s.And he’s right—it’s not just McDonald’s. The entire quick-service restaurant sector is feeling the squeeze. Chipotle Mexican Grill CEO Scott Boatwright noted during his company’s earnings call that customers earning under $100,000 annually make up 40% of Chipotle’s sales—and they’re pulling back. Meanwhile, Sweetgreen CFO Jamie McConnell reported a 15% sales drop among 25- to 35-year-olds, a group that accounts for 30% of Sweetgreen’s business. The Northeast and Los Angeles, two of Sweetgreen’s biggest markets, are seeing the steepest declines. That’s not a regional fluke. It’s a pattern.
A Bifurcated Nation, One Bite at a Time
The data tells a story of two Americas. One that still dines out regularly, splurging on premium bowls and limited-time McFlurries. Another that’s skipping meals—or worse, choosing between gas and a burger. Moody’s Analytics economist Marisa DiNatale put it plainly: “It has always been the case that more well-off people have done better. But a lot of the economic and policy headwinds are disproportionately affecting lower-income households.”Prices at limited-service restaurants rose 3.2% year-over-year as of November 2025, outpacing overall inflation at 3%. Why does that matter? Because low-income families spend nearly 30% of their income on food—nearly double the share of higher earners. Every price bump hits harder. Tariffs on dairy, beef, and packaging? They don’t show up on corporate balance sheets as “inflation.” They show up on kitchen counters as empty wallets.
McDonald’s isn’t alone in this. The trend has persisted for nearly two years, according to Kempczinski. And it’s not just restaurants. Grocery chains, discount retailers, and even pharmacies are seeing similar shifts. The working class isn’t buying less because they’re lazy. They’re buying less because they can’t afford more.
What Happens When the Dollar Menu Disappears
McDonald’s has tried to adapt. It launched value meals, digital coupons, and bundled deals. But when your core demographic can’t afford the $5.99 Chicken McNuggets meal, even a $1.50 coupon doesn’t help. The company’s U.S. same-store sales growth slowed to 2.4% in Q3 2025, down from 2.5% in Q2. That’s not a blip. It’s a trend.Analyst Adam Josephson summed it up: “Happy Meals at McDonald’s are prohibitively expensive for some people, because there’s been so much inflation.” And he’s not exaggerating. In Los Angeles, where rent has surged 22% since 2020, a family of four might spend $150 a week on groceries alone. A $7 Happy Meal? That’s one meal they’ll skip.
The irony? McDonald’s is still profitable. Its global sales are up. Its stock is holding steady. But profitability isn’t the same as sustainability. If the people who built this empire—the single moms, the shift workers, the college students—keep leaving, what’s left? A chain for the affluent, with a hollowed-out brand identity.
What’s Next?
McDonald’s says it’s “monitoring the situation.” That’s corporate-speak for “we’re watching, but we’re not fixing.” Investors are happy. Customers aren’t. The company could reintroduce true value pricing, but that would mean lower margins—and Wall Street doesn’t like that. It could expand its partnerships with food assistance programs, like SNAP, which it currently doesn’t accept in most locations. Or it could simply accept that its customer base is shrinking and pivot entirely to higher-income markets.But here’s the uncomfortable truth: McDonald’s built its empire on accessibility. Now, it’s becoming a symbol of exclusion. And in a country where one in five children lives in food-insecure households, that’s not just bad business. It’s a social signal.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are low-income customers leaving McDonald’s despite overall sales growth?
While McDonald’s global sales rose 8% in Q3 2025, its U.S. traffic from low-income customers dropped nearly double digits. The reason? Menu prices have climbed 40% since 2019, and essentials like rent, childcare, and groceries are eating up household budgets. Higher-income customers are spending more, offsetting losses—but the core customer base that made McDonald’s a staple is being priced out.
How does this trend compare to other fast-food chains?
Chipotle and Sweetgreen are seeing similar patterns. Chipotle’s customers earning under $100,000 account for 40% of sales but are dining out less. Sweetgreen reported a 15% sales decline among 25–35-year-olds, a key demographic that makes up 30% of its customer base. The issue isn’t isolated to McDonald’s—it’s systemic across the quick-service sector, reflecting broader economic pressure on working-class Americans.
What role has inflation played in this shift?
Limited-service restaurant prices rose 3.2% year-over-year as of November 2025, higher than the overall 3% inflation rate. For low-income households, who spend nearly 30% of income on food, even small price hikes have outsized impacts. Tariffs, supply chain costs, and wage pressures have all contributed, but the burden falls hardest on those with the least flexibility in their budgets.
Is McDonald’s doing anything to bring back low-income customers?
So far, McDonald’s has relied on digital coupons and value bundles, but these haven’t reversed the trend. The company doesn’t accept SNAP benefits in most U.S. locations, and its menu pricing strategy continues to prioritize margins over accessibility. Executives acknowledge the problem but have not announced structural changes—suggesting they view the shift as permanent rather than fixable.
What does this mean for the future of fast food in America?
Fast food is becoming a luxury good. Chains may increasingly target wealthier urban consumers with premium ingredients and digital experiences, while lower-income neighborhoods see fewer new locations and less investment. Without policy interventions—like SNAP acceptance or price controls—this could deepen food inequality, turning affordable meals into relics of a bygone era.
How long has this trend been going on?
Christopher Kempczinski confirmed during the November 2025 earnings call that the decline in low-income traffic has persisted for nearly two years. That means the shift began in late 2023, around the time inflation peaked and wage growth stalled, making even $5 meals a financial stretch for millions of American families.